How will e-commerce develop in the future?

Release time : 2026-04-28

Chinese e-commerce is entering a new stage of high-quality development. 

Recently, the Ministry of Commerce and six other departments released the "Guiding Opinions on Better Serving the Real Economy and Promoting High-Quality Development of E-commerce" (hereinafter referred to as the "Opinions"), aiming to continuously promote high-quality development, high-level opening-up, and high-efficiency governance of e-commerce, and better serve the consolidation and growth of the real economy. 

The new regulations are highly focused. They not only clearly define the key directions for empowerment and efficiency enhancement, but also vigorously develop quality e-commerce, strengthen regular supervision, and create a mutually beneficial industry ecosystem. In addition, they encourage enterprises to "go global" through cross-border e-commerce and Silk Road e-commerce, and jointly build and share the large-scale Chinese e-commerce market.

With the empowerment of the real economy as the main line 

E-commerce is no longer merely a channel for "purchasing goods"; it has transformed into the most crucial factor driving the upgrading of the real economy and achieving the integration of digital and physical worlds. Currently, e-commerce is at a critical juncture of integrating digital and physical elements and improving quality and upgrading. Placing "better serving the real economy" at the top of the priorities for the high-quality development of e-commerce, this decision has pointed out the direction for industry development, stabilized expectations, and boosted the confidence of enterprises. It plays a significant role in promoting e-commerce to deeply empower the real economy, facilitating the smooth circulation throughout the country, and contributing to the construction of a unified national market. 

The "Opinion" focuses on strengthening the real economy and has specifically outlined three key measures: assisting small and medium-sized enterprises in transformation, promoting rural e-commerce, and fostering industrial e-commerce. These measures accurately capture the essential point of "helping to consolidate and strengthen the foundation of the real economy". 

For small and medium-sized enterprises, the next step is to make good use of the "National E-commerce Public Service Platform", fully leverage the policy benefits on the platform, draw on successful cases, and utilize shared public data resources, to promote digital transformation at a low cost; at the same time, they should adhere to compliant and honest business operations, strengthen quality and service, break away from low-price competition, and build long-term competitiveness; actively embrace AI, apply innovative technologies, reduce operating costs, and improve circulation efficiency.

Accelerate international expansion 

Currently, the overseas expansion of e-commerce platforms has become an important part of the national economic strategy. According to data, the total import and export volume of China's cross-border e-commerce reached 2.75 trillion yuan in 2025, an increase of 69.7% compared to 2020, reaching a new historical high. It has played a significant role in stabilizing the basic position of foreign trade and promoting industrial upgrading. 

However, the process of e-commerce going global is not all smooth sailing. Taking the data for 2025 as an example, Amazon's international business revenue reached 143 billion US dollars, accounting for 22% of its total net sales; Walmart's international business accounted for approximately 18%; and eBay had 69% of its business revenue coming from markets outside the United States. These global business giants, through years of in-depth efforts, have established a solid competitive position and strong brand influence in each major market. 

This "Opinion" proposes four measures to promote high-level opening-up: promoting cross-border e-commerce, expanding "Silk Road e-commerce", accelerating institutional opening-up, and facilitating rule alignment. It aims to jointly build and share a large e-commerce market in China. Specifically, it includes developing models such as "market purchase + cross-border e-commerce" and "China-Europe Railway Express + cross-border e-commerce"; providing strong support for overseas warehouses of cross-border e-commerce, improving overseas intelligent logistics platforms; strengthening the debut and premier of high-quality overseas products, innovating "national pavilion + live streaming" channels, cultivating "one country, one best-selling product", and fostering a number of key cooperation cities for "Silk Road e-commerce". 

"China's e-commerce sector will next seek more growth opportunities in the global market," said Li Mingtao, the chief expert in e-commerce at the China International E-commerce Center. The "Opinions" have identified internationalization as an important direction for the development of e-commerce, including through cross-border e-commerce exports and imports, "Silk Road e-commerce" international cooperation, etc., to expand the global market influence of China's e-commerce. It also encourages all regions to leverage their own industrial foundations, resource endowments, and geographical advantages, and benchmark against high-standard international economic and trade rules to conduct differentiated explorations and innovate in the institutional opening-up practices of e-commerce.


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